“Trump’s Trade Gamble Backfires – One third of the US economy is ALREADY in recession”… Here are the next states to fall

The latest warning signs are clear: nearly a third of the U.S. economy is either in recession or teetering on the brink, according to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi. State-level data shows that 23 states plus Washington, D.C. — representing almost one-third of national GDP — are already contracting. Another third, including economic giants like California and New York, is stagnating, while the rest, concentrated in the South and West, is still managing to grow.

This uneven map of recession paints a troubling picture: America’s economy is fragmenting, and the policies coming out of Washington could tip the balance.

The State-by-State Divide

• Recession/High Risk: Illinois, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Wyoming, and Washington, D.C. have slipped into downturns.
• Stagnant: California, New York, Michigan, and Ohio are barely holding steady.
• Growing: Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania remain bright spots, powering national growth.

But as Zandi warns, the cushion is thin. A slowdown in Texas or Florida could easily drag the whole economy downward.

Trump’s Tariffs: Relief or Risk?

President Trump’s economic agenda leans heavily on tariffs, stricter immigration controls, and tax reforms. His allies argue that tariffs protect American manufacturing jobs, bring supply chains back home, and strengthen U.S. bargaining power abroad. But critics warn the costs are already showing up in three ways:

1. Higher Prices: Tariffs on Chinese goods and European imports are raising costs for businesses and consumers. While politically popular in some regions, they risk slowing demand.
2. Strain on Trade States: Export-heavy states like Illinois, Michigan, and Massachusetts — already showing signs of recession — are among the hardest hit by retaliatory tariffs.
3. Investment Uncertainty: Businesses in stagnant states like California and New York are hesitant to expand under volatile trade conditions.

In other words, Trump’s signature economic tools may be accelerating the divide between growing Southern states and struggling industrial hubs.

Immigration and Labor Shortages

Another pillar of Trump’s platform is tightening immigration. Supporters say it relieves pressure on housing, schools, and wages. Yet economists note that labor shortages in sectors like construction, agriculture, and healthcare — all critical in states like Texas and Florida — could undercut growth if policies are applied too rigidly.

The Next States to Fall

If trends hold, the next dominoes could be Ohio, Michigan, and Nevada, where growth has already flattened. If these states slip into contraction, the “one-third recession” could quickly become a national downturn.

That possibility would test Trump’s claim that his policies are “fortifying America’s economy.” If tariffs and restrictive labor rules choke off the very states keeping the U.S. afloat, his approach could backfire at the worst possible time.

Final Thoughts

The U.S. economy is now a patchwork: some states booming, others already shrinking. The deciding factor could be whether Trump’s tariff-driven, America-first strategy helps shield the nation or deepens the fractures.

For now, the story is simple: a third of the U.S. economy is already in recession, and the rest is watching nervously. What comes next may depend less on global markets than on the policies made in Washington.